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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising

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To: jeffbas who wrote (3094)5/28/1999 10:49:00 AM
From: Biomaven  Read Replies (1) of 10280
 
Jeffrey,

If you look at SEPR's timeline for NDA's you will see that there is a steady stream of new drugs scheduled for at least the eight years (assuming the schedule doesn't get speeded up by licensing agreements with the existing patent holders). There simply isn't going to be the precipitous drop that you see in Bob's worst case figures.

Further, if you really believe that Claritin II and Prozac II sales are going to rapidly dwindle to nothing once the generics enter the picture, then I can think of no better investment than to be short SGP and LLY, as these are far and away their most important products.
I think we will see some erosion in market share and pricing, but they will both still remain very significant drugs.

Peter
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