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Technology Stocks : Safeguard Scientifics SFE

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To: Tom Bunge who wrote (2984)5/28/1999 11:31:00 AM
From: michael r potter  Read Replies (2) of 4467
 
Follow up thoughts to 2983. SFE may be tied to the internet sector, but does not have the same risk. While a company like UBID [ $34 down from $189] has a theoretical floor close to zero, SFE has a practical floor close to its NAV around $26. As the stock has dropped, the portion of pure internet to other NAV has dropped and thus SFE gets less subject to the same downside as the internet group in general. An example [oversimplified]. At $125 with a $25 NAV the internet component is 80%. If the internet sector drops, SFE should drop about .8 X as much. At $50, with a $25 NAV, the internet component is 50%. If the internet sector drops, SFE would only drop about .5 as much. There should be some premium above NAV for its rights/IPO structure and for non-internet private investments like Pac West. Also, the fact that they are concentrating their internet bets in the BtoB sector, which is worth a lot IMO. In sum, SFE may go in the direction of the internet group, but the vulnerability is lessened vs the sector as prices go lower. That is why SFE remains not only a core holding, but the largest for me. They are smart and work hard for shareholders. Thanks, enjoy the long weekend. Mike
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