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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 230.17-1.4%Nov 7 9:30 AM EST

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To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (30704)5/28/1999 11:33:00 AM
From: Jack Kunkle  Read Replies (1) of 70976
 
Katherine:

<The precise ratio between cost per transistor (which drops) and cost per chip (which historically increases but has decreased the last three years) determines whether the chip companies make a profit or not, and therefore whether they build more fabs.>

I think that one has to distinguish between prices and manufacturing costs. I believe that prices normally trend downward. This is certainly the case for commodity products. In technology all products ultimately become commodities. If a manufacturer wants to serve a commodity marketplace then they must come to terms with their cost structure. In an environment where "prices" normally trend downward suppliers must continue to invest so that their cost structure enable them to continue to be in business. I believe that this is what AMAT is all about coupled with being the enabler of Moore's law.

I bet that Micron is making some money today because it invested in 1998 relative to the Japanese who did not, and thus are not able to respond to the relentless decline in pricing.

Regards,

Jack Kunkle
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