Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 268.78

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3:32 PM EST

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To: William Griffin who wrote (30711)	5/28/1999 12:16:00 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (3) of 70976

>> What will drive the price to 70 from this juncture, other than perhaps earnings in August?? Speculation (or at least the expectation) that we are in the same old kind of business cycle that we've seen for the past 20 years. BTW, if I recall the SSB report correctly, one of their arguments was that this is not the same old business cycle and as such, a small down turn will be taken as the start of the next down cycle, thereby increasing the volatility. [Amazing, someone with willingness to risk his neck at SSB! This is a first and he must be new]. Jack: We are a long way away from the bottom, because supply has not fallen below demand yet. We slightly went below demand earlier in the year, but the excess capacity moved us above it again. This will continue until supply goes below demand and stays there for a while. That is when you know the bottom has been reached. ST

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