TA, I agree with you. I think the Fed would be wrong to raise. It doesn't make sense to me for the same reasons you mentioned, in addition to others(Y2K, commodities down, Asia slowing, possible yuan devaluation). However, the Fed may not be looking at things the way we do. IMO, they are focusing on the following:
1. Mar and Apr existing home sales up to record highs.
2. Home prices outpacing rest of economy
3. Durable goods, excluding aircraft and defence, rose sharply in April
4.Core CPI up much stronger than expected.
5. Short end of the yield curve is very steep, indicating upward pressure on short-term rates.
6. GDP #s have been very strong, showing growth more than 1/2% above where our rates are.
6. Lumber prices(indicative of housing starts have been rising, bucking the rest of commdoities) |
