Hi Moat,
<CC said no one from msft has called him. Clearly CC has insights that could be useful to Gates> 2 comments: MSFT has over $3 Billion invested in R&D this year. CC may not be viewed as relevant to the discussion. Also, just reading your post and not having seen the interview, it seems CC may have been doing a little soliciting.... At $10K/day, I might be tempted myself. Let see, 10K goes into 3B how many times? <gg> A 5-7 year prediction is near worthless in this brave new world. Just think about it. Who, in 1992, was predicting the dominance of the Internet in investor's minds or the dramatic transformation of the public telecommunications network that is now going on? Anyone who is making correct predictions about what is coming up in the 3-12 month is far more valuable from an investor's point of view. George Gilder comes to mind and no, I can't think of anyone who has made better calls in the last couple years.
< wish I could see the future.> It is possible to get to a close approximation of the future by paying close attention to the product development that is discussed at dozens of trade shows, and then in the press and on threads such as those here at SI. Trends to watch include, in no particular order, DSLAMs, OADMs, Terabit Routers, Optical Switches, Caching Devices, multi-function STBs, FO in general, Wireless solutions, especially CDMA, and, oh, did I mention bandwidth providers?
I love to read Buffett's 'Chairman's Letters' for their clarity, insight and wit. Gilder, of course, is much more useful to a tech investor, (sorry, don't have anyone to 'trump' his commentary). Haven't seen anything in print from Charlie Munger. Got any URLs? Don't know who Bill Miller is, again, any URLs?
Here's something I posted today on the 'Last Mile' thread, a very useful source of information.
Message 9826040
I've just read your post #7 so let me comment on it as well.
CSCO is an acquisitor and aggregator that outsources a good deal of its production. Since Chambers was brought on board, the company has had a consistent history in this business methodology. Not only does it work, it works wonders on Wall Street. I have a familiarity with the local community college network administrator and to him, as I am sure to hundreds of network admins, when he thinks about expanding his network, there really is no other realistic choice but to continue to upgrade with Cisco products because to change vendors makes system integration such an iffy proposition and potential nightmare. Cisco support is phenomenal. Unlike your experience with PacBell on the DSL (totally typical of the ILEC approach), Cisco actually cares that its products work as advertised. Since Cisco continues to advance the product line, either thru internal development or by buying R&D shops on the bleeding edge, I have no fear of the company becoming obsolescent. My only concern with the firm, is the rule of big numbers. The question the potential investor must ask is just how long the growth can be sustained. Because, alas, the market is adamant in punishing super-growth companies that become merely outstanding. Witness the near term weakness in Dell.
The way I look at it, Cisco's business is networks, not routers. The router is what got 'em on the map. But it is hardly their only product.
<Is the battle going forward Cisco vs. LU, NT, etc... ?> Of course, as the PSTN and the Internet merge, all players will be packet switched, protocol enabled providers of multiple data streams.
<how do you see that play out? why?> All of the above mentioned companies will be players for a long, long time. Their R&D is superb, LU and NT are becoming more entrepreneuerial, and the market is big enough for all to succeed. Who's gonna be best for LT shareholders. Dunno, I have placed my bets elsewhere. Primarily with the bandwidth providers who will purchase equipment from CSCO/LU/NT, etc. My picks for the long term include LVLT, GBLX, MFNX and a few others. One time sales of equipment are one thing, SLAs and IRUs with steady decades- long cashflow are quite another......
Best, Ry |
