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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 659.00

+1.0%

Nov 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: j.o. who wrote (15265)	5/28/1999 4:40:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) of 99985

j.o., i just looked at the charts and would tend to agree with your wavecount. the nutz have bounced from an oversold condition, which i expected. some of them(YHOO,DCLK)have now met up with their declining 10-dma's and we may see an attempt to overcome them early in tuesday's trading. probably the attempt will fail; i believe that today's rally will convince many people that a bottom has been made, which is possible but not likely(i concede that some accumulation has been going on all day,but i have seen this before and it was all forgotten a day later). more trouble looms for tech stocks in general imo, despite today's strong showing. what today has mainly accomplished is to instill a false sense of confidence. let's not forget that most indexes have bounced from important support levels of one kind or another (be it former resistance(SPX), 50-day ema(DOW)) and these supports don't get easily violated. i expect quite a bit more downside before the market puts in a true bottom. open interest distribution on various OEX strikes would suggest that a ceiling for short term upside exists at 670, so we may get one more strong day before the decline resumes. i reserve to change my opinion if the market's action or my indicators call for it. right now, your wave count is my preferred view. regards, hb

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