As you say, the panic may not happen in 1999, although I've been told that long shelf life food and generators are already selling out in some places, but check out www.yardeni.com before deciding whether one will happen when the real problems start in 2000. Pay special attention to issues of the just in time supply chain in Asia. Remember that comment by McNealy of Sun about stocking up on computers for 2000?
Then there is the power grid. Did you know that the phone system and GPS have to work to keep the power on? The power reliability system is only designed to handle a few failures at a time, not a simultaneous software defect in a given version of programmable controller that happens to be installed all over. And they can't take the system off line to test it. Also remember that it will start in the dead of winter, and this winter may be colder than recent ones have been. Finally, a major part of the worlds power is generated by nuclear plants which could have to be turned off if external power needed for safety systems is lost.
Not trying to create panic, but complacency may not be warranted either. It would only take a few weeks of major disruption to cause a major slide in the market, given what it does in response to rumors of possible minor rate hikes. If the problems are temporary and easy to fix, the slide should be short lived, but given the amount of effort already expended over years, it seems unlikely that all the problems will be fixed quickly, especially where they are in embedded systems. |
