SunTzu,
<<So what does all this have to do with DRAM and SemiCaps? Well, in case of DRAM I have not been able to
justify using more than 256MB in my machine since 1994. Granted, it cost me a lot more to put all that
memory in my Sun workstation in '94 than it does today, but that is exactly the problem for DRAM makers;
I need the same amount of DRAM, but now I pay less. As for the semicaps, you can't really justify new
purchases to your customers if they are not making any money. So far the commodity chip makers are in a
self destructive upgrade cycle. Eventually (soon?) there will be only 3~5 players in each category.>>
OTOH, I have not touched, within the past year, any Unix box with less than 2G DRAM. Even then, the models are limited by memory and CPU. Even on machines with 16G and 8 R10010 CPU's, the models are only tolerable and definitely not real time. Simulations and visualizations are sequential and slow. Yes I am pushing the envelope but clearly, the models are still very simplistic compared to the real physical world. There are still much work to be done on software and hardware. Computing technology is not close to being satisfactory unless Excel spreadsheets and Word are all that's needed for further human advances.
When is it going to stop? Not in our life times. Not until we can analyze and model everything that's matters to our existence and fast enough for it to matter. And yes, I expect that I or my children will have affordable home 3D theater and gigabyte networks, and we will find a use for it. |
