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The reasons you give for shorting Cephalon are not convincing. First you state that I never explained the price downswings in Cephalon. There is no reason to mention the January 1995 downturn because it was before any Phase III results. It was also at a time where all biotechs tanked. It is irrelevant. The stock tanked in August (which incidentally is when I bought a large amount, thank you) again because of a downturn in the biotech stocks. You know that, harkenman. Don't cloud the issue. Value Line, in their 11/8/96 report predicted a good 1997 for Cephalon. They feel that Myotrophin will get approved. If you like, I will print their exact report, just ask. As far as Smith Kline discontinuing their funding to Cephalon, that was for 1 of the 3 Alzheimer's development programs that Cephalon is conducting. And, need I say, the least promising one. The other 2, especially the CEP147 program is moving on wonderfully. It is actually an oral pill for Alzheimer's (watch out Cortex). As a matter of fact, Smith Kline is continuing that same Alzheimer's project on their own and Cephalon kept the licensing, so I see that Smith Kline still found it important. But again, this is insignificant news. You say that you are shorting the stock brcause of the poor Phase III results. Honestly, do you really know what those results were? I do. That's why I bought so much of it. If you have not seen the official results, I will post them, just ask. Cephalon does not have a manufacturing facility because they sold it last September. Why did they sell it? Because Chiron cut them a deal they could not refuse. You must realize that the European results were not poor. Just "less robust". Sure, every stock has its risks. Cephalon certainly bears the risk of Myotrophin not being approved. But, in the unlikely event of that happening, what is your view on what I see as their real powerhouse drug, Provigil? I did not mean to imply that the filing with the SEC was deceptive, but rather the context in which you posted it. Every company's 10-K looks like that. Cephalon is no exception. |
