Tero, I'm always happy to help out. <My favorite sentence in the article was: "Major Chinese handset suppliers include Motorola, Qualcomm Inc. and South Korea's Samsung Electronics". It's a daring redefinition of the word "major". Could somebody help me out here? Is Qualcomm's market share in China 0,4% or 0,6%? I can't recall.>
Your problem is perhaps that you are accomplished linguist, but others make mistakes. Perhaps the original was written or spoken in Mandarin, then somebody translated to what you are thinking of Orwellian-speak. Actually, more Alice-In-Wonderland than Orwellian in this instance but let's not get picky.
The handset suppliers; Motorola, Qualcomm and Samsung, are major handset suppliers which will supply the company. This has apparently been twisted to 'major Chinese handset suppliers', which is an understandable mistake. It is obvious that none of those companies is Chinese, or currently major suppliers to the Chinese handset market.
We should be sensible enough to look for the meaning behind the words rather than insist on the meaning which first appears. That's the occupational hazard of figuring out what other people mean. As you will have noticed, even English [well, American for the most part] language users who have that as their only language are prone to many mistakes along those lines, so it's not surprising to find in in this situation.
<OK - it's a major revision in our definition of "toast". I'll have mine with blueberry jam. Of course, TDMA and GSM are technologically similar and will be incorporated in multi-mode handsets next year. What we're looking at is at least 65% combined global market share for TDMA/GSM in 2003. >
'GSM is toast' is not quite the correct tense but remains correct. It is a predictive statement even with the 'is' there, which I'm sure you understand. We then need to debate the precise time at which the toast will be burned. 2003 is quite some time away. May 2003 is 4 years away. That is a long time in The New Paradigm. That is a whole year longer than from May 1996 until now.
Think back to May 1996 and consider your opinion of where CDMA would be today. In the archives as an interesting attempt at an absurd technology according to Bill Frezza, [who hasn't been dragged out for a ritual flogging for some time now], yourself, L M Ericsson among others. Now, think where CDMA is right now, despite the significant problems which loomed and succeeded in delaying progress over those three years.
Now, think what barriers lie in front of cdmaOne, cdma2000, W-CDMA at present. L M Ericsson has paid up large amounts of money to be in. There is nothing but economic analysis of wireless options to slow cdmaOne and cdma2000 [and variants such as W-CDMA - there I go again]. EVERYONE now knows that cdmaOne works. EVERYONE now knows that CDMA will be the 3G standard. EVERYONE wants to be in the game. They are all moving fast to be there.
So, given the progress over 3 years for an immature techology, how much faster do you think it will go now that Nokia, Ericy, Motorola, Lucent, Samsung, NEC, Toshiba, Sony, Hitachi, Kyocera, Sanyo, Panasonic, LG, Northern Telecom, and all the other licensees are going flat out to gain market share and profits?
It will go a LOT faster! A LOT< LOT< LOT< faster. [To save you answering the question]. Prices will drop very, very quickly.
Sure, GSM will continue to make sales where the networks are in place and be expanded in those areas where it makes sense to achieve a return on investment over a couple of years. But very quickly, the merits of cdmaOne and the 3G variants will be overwhelming. Then as has happened with analog, people will start ditching their old handsets in preference for the functionality which only the new can give them.
You correctly realized that cheaper handsets would be important because people see the handset as a short term buy - one year or so at the most. Then they biff it and get the latest. The latest will so be Web/Email devices and nearly everyone will want them, as well as the continually improving functionality [which GSM has been the leader in until now - continuing to lead right at the moment but be patient, the MSM 5000 is looming].
'GSM is toast' will be very obviously true in the present tense well before May 2003. My guess is more like 2001 [I'd say sooner, but like to be conservative and not have exaggerated expectations - as you know]. I guess monthly sales of CDMA handsets will exceed GSM monthly handset sales about May 2000. CDMA is currently running at over 2m per month. GSM is going faster than that! But CDMA is rapidly gaining speed. It sure won't take until May 2003 to exceed GSM monthly sales of handsets [even allowing for upgrades of GSM models]!
That's my theory anyway,
GSM is toast, with or without blueberry jam.
Maurice |
