Ray, I do not disagree with you much on this assessment, I would point out to a possible parallel, however, and that is extent and speed of acceptance. Since VLNC insist (as far as I understood Lev's philosophy) on designing the batteries in the laptops, there is a possibility of slow acceptance, just because the OEM may be reluctant to commit to a completely new technology for a major portion of their product line.
Frankly, it all boils down to these first few OEM orders (and I do not subscribe to the position they should be of the $50 MM caliber). If they come in, the IDB line of credit should be able to support the first $100 MM or so in sales, then the profits from these sales with additional financing, should be able to once more support doubling these sales.
I do not know the exact arrangement with IDB, but in a parallel state sponsored development fund to encourage local manufacturing, I was involved with, the line of credit to support growing sales opens up widely, to finance accts receivable and inventories, may be Ireland has a similar policy.
If you wanted to attempt a model for VLNC's J hook, I would say take $75 MM in the first year after the first PO, and then go to about $200 MM in the second year, and if everything is dandy take another two to three years to reach the $1 billion level. If you assume that this is a rational rate of expansion of sales, and that the first PO occurs let say before July 30th, you could see the stock price going to the $20 to $30 by the second half of next year and doubling every year for the next three years or so after that (with of course the intermittent halving of the stock price every time we get the Feds to raise rates, or other external events cause the market to catch a cold.)
As John so often says, lets get those OEM PO's.
Zeev
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