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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC)
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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (11528)5/29/1999 1:14:00 PM
From: Emmo  Read Replies (2) of 27311
 
Two trends appear to be emerging.
It looks like the first consumer applications for Valence's LiPoly battery will be in Korea. Primarily since any early "bugs" in this market will not have a major effect on the company or the outlook for LiPoly batteries. The US media would be pretty brutal on VLNC and LiPoly if the first deployment in the US had some problem. It seems more conservative a strategy to test market in Korea first.
Next, it is important to keep an eye on Delpi's progress in developing LiPoly batteries. There is a huge ground swell for hybrid vehicles. Toyota is selling a hybrid for $16,000 in Japan, a four-seater with an 800 mile range. (Or you can buy a two-seat EV-1 for $32,000 with a 60 mile range.) The battery is the key to this revolution in automobile development. Once Delphi can show it's LiPoly to be a dependable and cost effective replacement for lead-acid and NiCad then you can forget seeing these older batteries on the shelves anymore. Delphi is saying it's LiPoly will last the life of the vehicle. Hybrids sales will boom once LiPoly is introduced. (Buy stock in DPH???)

Batteries are a frustrating market. Development times are long and slow. Everytime a change is made, however small, long test periods are required. You have to be an a super patient investor or an insider who knows when the time is right to make any kind of return on one's investment. Kind of hard when internet stocks are doubling in value in one day. Watching and commenting on the daily price changes of VLNC is both a waste of time and a mind numbing exercise. This is a black or red investment. It either wins or doesn't.
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