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Strategies & Market Trends : Due Diligence - How to Investigate a Stock

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To: David C. Burns who wrote (502)5/30/1999 8:14:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed  Read Replies (1) of 752
 
David, I think that such calculations are useful when trying to "estimate" the fair current market value of companies that have no current revenues, but "hopes" for future revenues. Example, many of the internuts, companies with possible explosive revenues like RMBS, and BRCM where the bulk of revenues are expected more than two years hence, companies like VLNC and ULBI where such revenues might be three to four years down the pike, and companies like RNTK and REFR where the horizons might be even further. In all these cases you have both technology forecasting and market forecasting problems, and the more "cloudy" the future the higher should be the discount rate of future "forcasted revenues".

As for the actual number, I would add to the base of 3 times the 30 years treasuries a rate of between 0% to 6% depending on "market risks" and another 0% to 6% depending on "technological" risks, and thus the maximum discount rate could be as high as 30% or five times the long term treasuries. These measures are, of course, very subjective.

Zeev
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