Rambling thoughts on a Sunday morning:
May the brave who have saved and preserved this great country of ours be remembered in our hearts and spirits this Memorial Weekend.
Regarding RMBS/IBM:
Stock could get slammed but should quickly find support somewhere in the 60's which would, IMO, present the last great buying opportunity for RMBS. Why?
Because Dell, CPQ, HP, GTW, etc. are not going to abandon the new INTC platform which includes RMBS - pure and simple. Once the computer magazines come out with bench performances of RMBS machines vs. competing technology - I think it's pretty much over for the competing technology, unless I missing something here.
Let IBM have its 10% or so share of the PC business. So, if RMBS' stock gets slammed on Tuesday, the question is where do we go from there. Is RMBS over? Has INTC abandoned its huge worldwide investments already made on behalf of bringing RMBS technology to the forefront? Has IBM enough power to dictate the future technology of the DRAM business to the likes of Intc, Samsung, Nec, Toshiba, Dell, CPQ, HP, etc., etc,. etc. Are these guys going to jump into the sea after IBM like penguins? The answers to these questions are obvious, I think.
Is a 50% share of the PC Dram market in the year 2001/2002 make for a tremendous business? Will there be other uses for RMBS technology besides PC's? Will RDRAM become cost effective in the not too distant future? Will RMBS technology spawn a new generation of advanced computer uses especially tied to the digital age and the convergence of TV and the Internet? The answers to these questions are obvious, I think.
So everyone, get ready for the Fud - we may be on the down escalator for a little while, but not for long. IBM is going to milk the PC business for all its worth at the present and see if they can make money at it. They will eventually lose more share to the Dells of the world, and IBM will concentrate more on its EBusiness and Service Business and eventually throw in the towel on its PC business or join the RMBS crowd. JMHO. Therefore, I see a tremendous opportunity to buy RMBS at lower prices after this "overhyped news event" is absorbed in the marketplace.
Everyone, have a great weekend and a little rocky ride next week. But the world is not ending and neither is RMBS. Good luck to all.
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