Fabeyes, what kills me is that some of the analysts are willing to
buy into their version of the truth lock, stock and barrell.
This market share thing - it's a total joke.
BBRS has written in research that MU has "25%" of the DRAM market.
Gruntal has them at 20%.
In terms of revenues, obviously, that's not true.
Global DRAM revs. from SIA for MU's 2Q99:
($ bil.)
Dec-98=1.46
Jan-99=1.53
Feb-99=1.54
TTL=4.53
MU semicon revs.=697.1 mil.
Market share global dollar volume = 15.39%
If you estimate $30 mil. non-DRAM, that puts them @ 667.1 mil. for a
market share of global dollar volume of 14.57%.
So they must be talking about units?
Fine. We'll look at that.
What has to be the differential in ASP's between MU and the Rest of
the world if MU is 14.57% of global revenues, but 20% and 25% in
terms of global units?
assumes MU 20% units using 697.1 using 667.1
units 100 100
MU units 20 20
ROW units 80 80
MU "ASP" 0.8426 -27.187% 0.807 -31.780%
Row "ASP" 1.1573 1.1831
MU revs. 16.853 16.143
ROW revs. 92.585 94.654
TTL revs. 109.438 110.79
MU share 15.40% 14.57%
MS revs. 15.39% 14.57%
ROW revs. 84.61% 85.43%
assumes MU 25% units
units 100 100
MU units 25 25
ROW units 75 75
MU "ASP" 0.6894 -45.432% 0.657 -48.836%
Row "ASP" 1.2634 1.2852
MU revs. 17.236 16.439
ROW revs. 94.761 96.392
TTL revs. 111.99 112.831
MU share 15.39% 14.57%
So, for Gruntal to be correct (if you assume they're talking units),
MU's ASP would have to be roughly 31.7% lower than the rest of the
world for them to have 20% of units, but only 14.57% of revs.
And for BBRS to be correct (again, thinking in terms of units), MU's
ASP's would have to be roughly 48.83% lower than the rest of the
world for them to have 25% of units, but only 14.57% of revs.
The differential is ludicrous.
How ludicrous?
If for 2Q, you assume MU's ASP was 9.20 and the differentials worked
about above hold...
...that would mean the ASP for the rest of the world was $13.49
(assuming MU had 20% units, but only 14.57% revs)...
...or that the ASP for the ROW was $17.79 (assuming 25% units, but
oly 14.57% of revs.)
That simply does not add up.
Anyone who wants to can work out the stuff on their own (I'm just
setting up the stuff starting w/ unit share as the baseline and using
the solver function in Excel...which has some margin for
error...like right now, I'm seeing the TTL revs. aren't
equal across the 697.1 and 667.1 columns...but anyway, you get the picture)
My point is just to once again show how ridiculous IMHO some of these
market share figures are.
Good trading,
Tom
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