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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 230.17-1.4%Nov 7 9:30 AM EST

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To: Jack Kunkle who wrote (30708)5/30/1999 12:36:00 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire  Read Replies (3) of 70976
 
>> I think that one has to distinguish between prices and manufacturing costs. I believe
that prices normally trend downward. This is certainly the case for commodity
products. In technology all products ultimately become commodities. If a
manufacturer wants to serve a commodity marketplace then they must come to
terms with their cost structure. In an environment where "prices" normally trend
downward suppliers must continue to invest so that their cost structure enable them
to continue to be in business. I believe that this is what AMAT is all about coupled
with being the enabler of Moore's law. <<

You do not appear to be listening. Chip average selling prices normally trend *upward*. (Source: ICE Corp, Semiconductor World Trade Statistics) Every single drop in chip average selling prices in the last 20 years has been accompanied by a decline in overall chip industry revenues, and an accompanying decline in equipment purchases. These *increasing* prices, combined with decreasing *costs* (Moore's Law), allow chip suppliers to deliver huge margins to their shareholders while *simultaneously* delivering more computing power to the consumer for less money.

I really don't like to "pull rank" in these discussions, but it's my job to get such fundamental points of semiconductor market economics right. I"m certainly willing to consider contradictory data, should you wish to supply it.

Katherine
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