[bt]
hi ray,
this post actually started out kinda short.. oh well.. ;)
took the opportunity to look over the bt situation from the perspective of an orct shareholder... and figured i might as well pass along some links... (and some wandering speculation)
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the lines which jumped out at me from those electronicsweekly.co.uk articles:
"BT... is now expected to offer asymmetric digital subscriber line services (ADSL) nationally in July or August... "
and that
"Equipment manufacturers confirm that BT has placed substantial orders for ADSL technology..."
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have followed the bt adsl plans for a couple of years now... and as graham pointed out bt has been moving very s l o w l y ...
last memorable bt adsl press info was from earlier this year when total telecom noted that bt had suspended their adsl trial after "unsatisfactory results"
totaltele.com
(registration req'd-free)
so was rather surprised to read the trials had been extended and that "BT has placed substantial orders"
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don't know how closely you have followed the alcatel/fujitsu (wstl)/bt uk adsl drama (or lack thereof)... but it would seem pretty clear that one of the equipment manufacturers hinted at as receiving orders is no doubt fujitsu (the other being ala).. from what i have been able to gather there seems to be a whole lot of politics to the BT deployment... this trial and probably the eventual dsl deployment quite possibly isn't so much a traditional contract, as a joint venture. ... BT is trying to keep their upfront costs down... the players (ala &fujitsu 50/50 adsl product for trial) are being asked to assume a significant portion of the risk as $ are somewhat contingent on market success... equipment now / payment later/if successful ... or something like that
this current/original 2000 line trial seems to get reannounced every 6 months or so... originally it was to be completed by first quarter of 98 ...
techweb.com
bt has referred to this trial as a "follow-on" from the BT's trial of Interactive TV that took place in Ipswich and Colchester in 1995.. a couple of lifetimes ago in xdsl time... ;)
isntrial.bt.com
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in spite of how very slowly bt has moved in regards to adsl to date, am inclined to believe that they are about to get it in gear... looks like the regulators intend to give them a pretty good kick in the pants... and the more they drag their feet the worse it could get for them.. "In 1999, EU telecommunications law, which sets the framework for UK regulation, will be reviewed..." it seems like this will set the context of the game for bt... a very good (and dense sympathetic) document outlining the regulatory issues/options facing bt:
"Access to bandwidth : Bringing higher bandwidth services to the consumer
A Consultation Document issued by the Director General of Telecommunications
December 1998"
search.bt.com
and a very informative (and dense) response from bt:
"Meeting the Datawave Through Competition and Co-operation: BT's Response to Oftel's Consultation-Access to Bandwidth"
fwiw my first take is that if regulators don't percieve bt as moving quickly enuf, bt could very well be forced into unbundling (etc) much more rapidly.. thought this section particularly interesting/revealing as bt named numbers of lines planned and even the low demand scenario includes a whole lot:
"Under the high demand scenario, BT estimates roll-out at around 3.8m ADSL lines by the end of 2002/3. Under the low demand scenario, a slower roll-out would provide about 1.5m ADSL lines by the same date. Under both scenarios, substantial growth is expected in the years beyond 2003. Both scenarios are of course highly dependent on take-up, cost trends in the supply industry and the development of applications by BT and others to exploit the increased bandwidth delivered by ADSL. Although these figures are forecasts and not firm plans, they represent the range of our current best judgements about how BT will respond to an inherently unpredictable new market sector. If there is sufficient effective demand we will build capacity to support the product set which meets that demand. Supporting the evolving needs of our customers is essential to our business mission in the UK."
search.bt.com
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to date there has been no mention that i have been able to find of any orct adsl involvement with bt.. fujitsu (ftel) has been supplying wstl product exclusively.. initially (at least) ala was doing the dmt while fujitsu (wstl) was supplying cap
am inclined to think that the orct/fujitsu relationship is significant enuf that eventually orct will be introduced by fujitsu.. but then i'm probably biased and we'll have to wait to see how this plays out...as you probably know, orct is jointly developing silicon with fujitsu microelectronics, and has an exclusive strategic marketing and development alliance for north america with fujitsu network communications, and another relationship with fujitsu limited which has again been described as a strategic alliance (for asia and europe) and will involve not only fujitsu selling orctf products but also (probably most importantly) joint product development and integration of orctf technology into fujitsu's end-to-end systems... (would think that ftel would be involved with marketing these jointly developed products)
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listened carefully to the recent wstl cc and they sound confident in their relationship with fujitsu (ftel) .. but my read is simply they feel something more will be forthcoming for them...
my guess is that fujitsu will share the (eventual) bt adsl rollout with alcatel as expected ... but will not use wstl (directly).. nonetheless it feels like maybe ftel will oem some aspect of wstl product or otherwise reimburse wstl in one way or another... after all they go back a ways together with bt and there may be explicit or implicit agreements...
if this comes to pass, the question (for orct stockholders) would seem to be whether such an arrangement is a face saving way for fujitsu to transition to another dsl partner (orct) while at the same time closing out previous contractual obligations?... (an interpretation i'm partial too)
or
whether this would be a way for fujitsu to strengthen their xdsl position without orct (who might be getting closer to someone else- maybe lu)..
my guess is that eventually orct will come into the bt picture as part of the fujitsu's bt dsl team ... and that fujitsu will use the new fujitsu/orct adsl silicon in any case ... which should profit orct regardless...
could go on further with speculations... but should probably stop ...
fwiw.. clues i'm watching for:
g.lite/bt: bt is very interested in g.lite and has said that they will trial g.lite and: "It will be compatible with the standardised ADSL line cards which BT is planning to install in exchanges... Evaluation of DSL Lite equipment is already well advanced, and BT will begin tests in the UK as soon as production prototypes are available. " (which should be soon for fujitsu/orct silicon)
new orct/fujitsu integrated adsl product: bt recently signed a rather big 3 year contract with fujitsu (ftel) for sdh access systems... bt seems to be headed for fsan (full service access network/including vdsl) ... orct/fujitsu have been working for a while now to integrate orct adsl into fujitsu's Optical Line Terminations (OLTs) and Optical Network Units (ONUs) for fsan architecture.. should be forthcoming soon if on schedule... maybe ... supercomm ???
any mention of fujitsu (orct)/ala interoperability testing...
any mention of bt interest in adsl over isdn... bt is big into isdn...
very good (g.lite) article: sidebar "europe checks out adsl" discusses bt/dt isdn:
"..Both companies have huge investments in ISDN and substantial interests in ADSL..."
209.67.241.58
(edn mag: registration req'd-free)
and you-know-who seems up to speed in that department
and if anyone out there in the uk in these trials has one of those really cool modems with fujitsu imprinted on the top on one side with "dsl by orckit" on the other.. please speak up.. ;)
til later
s
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