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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 692.24

+0.3%

Jan 15 4:00 PM EST

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To: bobby beara who wrote (15375)	5/31/1999 1:55:00 PM
From: j.o.	Read Replies (1) of 99985

bobby - Interesting that the Dow and S&P charts are so different. I really can't make much of the Dow at the moment. In your link to the 60-min chart, it does almost look like 5 waves down - yet the S&P is (in my opinion) clearly and cleanly finishing up its fourth wave ABC, and is ready to begin the next downleg. In the Dow one could still argue that we still need a 5th wave up. We have completed a (roughly) 50% correction of the move up from late March through mid-May, and if we snap higher from here the daily chart has "fifth wave up" written all over it! But that only makes sense if you view the dow's latest days as an ugly A-B-C down...shouldn't be making 5 waves down within a counter-trend, right? Ughhh...in other words, I don't have a conclusive view on the Dow. Therefore I am focusing on the S&P at the moment - I feel that it gives a clearer picture, and the Dow seems to more-or-less come back into line with it over time. I'll keep a very good eye on the market tomorrow. I would expect an early attempt to rally higher...which will swiftly fail and allow us to resume our new trend. I think that tomorrow will make the picture much clearer. Plus, the trendlines on the 60-minute chart are going to quickly reach current levels. Eyeballing it looks like 1308-ish and falling quickly. That might give an early indication of the market's intentions. Good luck! j.o.

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