Re: "Com21 not developing DOCSIS CMTS" ??? Not selling perhaps.
Com21's latest DOXport DOCSIS-compliant cable modem is fully compliant with Cisco's CMTS. In my book, when CSCO signs off, that's as good as gold. Here's an interesting clip from the Yahoo board from an analyst's report:
"We believe the key success metrics are the number of home passed and cable operator wins. In terms of homes passed at the end of the March quarter Com21 passed 9.8 million homes, up approximately 7% from the December quarter. The real leverage in this story comes from increased penetration of cable modem systems in markets served by Com21 systems. Additionally, most of their cable operator customers have long term contracts with Com21, mitigating any significant impact due to quarterly fluctuation in cable modem prices."
"Com21 is benefiting from the accelerating deployment of cable systems-based Internet access solutions. The industry is experiencing positive trends and the order rate at Com21 remains strong. Additionally, we believe that by passing interoperability testing with Cisco's CMTS, Com21 offsets near term risks associated with not being (immediately) DOCSIS certified."
"We expect the next set of DOCSIS certified vendors to be announed in mid-to-late June, possibly in time for the Cable'99 show in Chicago the week of June 14th."
"We believe that the pressure in the stock from pricing pressure has created an excellent buying opportunity. The stock remains rated Strong Buy-Agressive with a price target of $40 based on 10x 1999 revenues, consistent with other high-growth franchise networking names."
Although no source is cited, it looks like a short version of the Dain Rauscher piece that hit the street last week, somewhat "coincidently" with the reversal of the stock.
I see CMTO as one of the few pure plays in broadband cable. I have no interest in XDSL over copper, a passing interest in the MMDS fringe from HYBR or SPDE, and have discounted TERN to a short on uptick. Thats just my opinion, your mileage may vary. |
