AT&T is not in the BB cable business to run a disjointed, fragmented series of independent cable companies; AT&T is betting the farm on their success in this arena.
Very true. So true, in fact, that it's hard to see how the independent @home network will fit into their long-term plans. I suspect that the stock will retain its independence, but the company will not. (After all, AT&T has a long history of holding separate but unequal operating companies.)
As #4 player in the BB cable industry, Charter is an unlikely winner in the acquisition of Road Runner. Comcast, UMG's jilted suitor, is unlikely to let the next biggest player in BB slip away.
I didn't say they'd be a winner (and in fact I agree that Comcast, with its Microsoft money, is a more likely winner), but did say they're likely to become a player in the game. For AT&T, the advantage of selling the RR partnership to Charter is that it would bring in a new set of subscribers and might allow ATHM to add MediaOne along with all of ATHM's current agreements, including -- maybe -- Comcast. If, on the other hand, Comcast buys or trades for the partnership, then ATHM suffers a net loss in subscribers, since MediaOne has fewer subscribers than Comcast.
Most of this is more appropriate to the ATHM board, but it's worth noting that GNET's cable future could still change as the cable industry consolidation settles out. It's far too early to predict what will happen, but worthwhile to speculate on the various things that might happen. |
