He has had a variety of signals that have said the mkt is going down for the next 6-8 weeks, :
Yesterday we told you the further downside projections on the Dow had not yet been confirmed but the S&P downside projections were confirmed. That remains the case at the close today, but the situation can change next week, if we do not begin to see some further downside moves. The Dow projection for a close below 10,000 by the way, can now be confirmed with any down close on Tuesday of next week. Remember, Monday is a market holiday. On the other hand, a rally early next week can invalidate all downside projections for the S&P so the for the few days of next week remain important.
Today's McClellan Oscillator improved to a 57 from Thursday's 131.3. We emphasize again that if May 13 is to prove to be a top of significance that the ratio adjusted McClellan Oscillator should reach the area of 86. The low so far that we have seen there has been 43.6 yesterday and it improved to 21.9 today, so if indeed we have seen a high of importance on May 13, next week should be down hard weekly by time that the week is over. We say this despite the favorable end of month-beginning of month seasonality that usually last until the end of next week or will be expected to.
The end of month numbers today showed that the Dow has been up now, 69 of the past 100 months and it is the first time this year to be lower than 70. This was a down month, of course, for the Dow and for eight of the nine past months before this month were up months so that in itself is unusual. Remember 70 per 100 is a record never before seen prior to this year, in this century, yet every month through April this year has finished with 70 months up of the last 100. Also this month, the monthly Coppock Curve turn down in the face of a new all time high made this month on the S&P. Perhaps, just perhaps, the bullish shell is beginning to crack. |
