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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc.

DELL 127.64

+4.2%

2:27 PM EST

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To: freeus who wrote (130205)	6/1/1999 6:49:00 PM
From: D.J.Smyth	Read Replies (1) of 176387

freeus, over the past 18 months we've had NAPM data under 50. We get two months above 50 and it's a bear market. Two months above 50 ONLY implies a trend reversal from the previous 16 months of falling prices. The prices still totally suck. Prices are dirt cheap as they stand now and we have two months above 50 where Manufacturers can report price stabilization, and we are in a bear market. the prices upon which the NAPM are based should be 25% higher for manufacturers surveyed in general to make the equivalent margins of Dell. Obviously if prices didn't suck OR had been rising consecutively for six months you can possibly claim that prices are getting to the point where companies margin's will be affected relative to earnings. But we have two months. Today's NAPM data is equivalent to paying $3.00 for a Big Mac in January of 1998, $2.70 in July 1998, $2.20 in December in 1998, and $2.35 in May 1999. We're still off considerably from January 1998 prices. And commodity prices continue to suck with little end in sight for them. Where is the bear market (other than technology stocks falling from their too highs)?

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