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Technology Stocks : Y2K (Year 2000) Stocks: An Investment Discussion

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To: JDN who wrote (13892)6/1/1999 7:03:00 PM
From: C.K. Houston  Read Replies (1) of 13949
 
I'd be real careful. It's very tempting. But, there may be margin calls bringing it lower. Then again MM's can be jerking the cord and it will pop up tomorrow.

Another thing to consider ... is that Y2K infrastructure problems are very, very bad abroad. I don't know source of electricity in India, but if some of it is nuclear power plants - that could pose a problem.

Apparently some of the remediation requires taking a nuke plant down. The largest utility in NJ will be taking down one or more nuclear power plants for "routine maintenance" in November and will remediate for Y2K then. (I have the link and statement from their SEC statement on the Y2K impact thread.) BUT ... it takes 4 months for a plant to be fully down to do this. So they'll have to start shutting down sometime in July.

International telecomms are a problem too. Plus while actual satellites supposedly are AOK re Y2K ... GPS (Global Positioning Systems) OPERATIONS system isn't Y2K compliant. Operations is pretty much the brains of the whole system. It keeps satellites where they're supposed to be.

Current operations systems is being "decommissioned". New one won't be delivered until September, at which time they'll start testing to see if it is functional and can be operational by Jan 1. I found that in a military power point presentation. Telecomms & GPS are VITAL for offshore companies.

I've always been a big fan of offshore companies. But Y2K will be achilles heal for them too.

State Dept was gonna identify vulnerable countries about 1-2 months ago. Madeline Albright said in an interview that this list wouldn't be released until later (probably July) because of concern regarding "flight of capital" from vulnerable countries.

Be careful. Look at the charts for the offshore companies during last wave of downgrades. Pretty bleak. I got burned BIG-TIME on MAST. But it happened early enough that there was a time for an orchestrated run-up. We're running out of time.

You might make some money short-term trading ... if you time it perfectly. But, then again - you could lose alot.

Good luck,

Cheryl

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