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Technology Stocks : Adobe (adbe) opinions

ADBE 331.12

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Nov 14 9:30 AM EST

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To: Michael F. Donadio who wrote (2641)	6/1/1999 11:26:00 PM
From: P.M.Freedman	Read Replies (1) of 3111

If we throw a coin, we may expect a good news coming tomorrow. If not, bad news is more likely. Why? Last quarter, Adobe anticipated that its traditional licensing revenue would remain flat or decline in 1999 due to the continuing decline in royalty revenue from HP and weak Japanese marketes. Application products revenue in last quarter were 57% from Windows and 43% from Macintosh. These numbers are telling us that Adobe's application softwares are losing market shares to Microsoft. Considering iMac's sales are not as good as being predicted, a lower revenue from Mac is quite possible. Because of Microsoft's digital graphic softwares, the renegotiation of royalty arrangements of Adobe with OEMs are getting more difficult. The 1999 revenue growth target is only 15% and its operating margin target is 25% of total revenue. Lower revenue from European operations has been expected because many customers reduce their purchasing activities in the summer months. Adobe's repurchasing 15 million was done in March.

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