Hello MoonBrother & All,
The bears are increasingly taking over this thread. To me, that means it is time to buy very soon, just like late last summer when only Bill was trying to fend off the entire horde of bear stampede.
On a fundamental level, I think there is a severe "decoupling" process going on - at the initial stage, all of the internet stocks fall. When the internet stocks stabilize, I think we will see a gradual divergence between quality and non-quality issues. I would put AMZN with quality issues such as YHOO, EBAY, EXDS, EGRP, INKT etc. 80% of all new internet IPOs are total junk ... most of them will not be around in 5 years ... and even companies such as LCOS, SEEK, and other secondary issues are total junk.
I think Barron's article did a great disservice to AMZN, which is only getting stronger vis-a-vis in terms of its competitive position. After it has largely destroyed the competition, including BNBN, I think we will see scalability & law of increasing returns kicking in.
The one big problem is that the competitors have such easy access to capital that AMZN is forced to fight a war of attrition. After AMZN has improved its competitive position, I expect AMZN to slightly change their business model from a stricly e-tailer to more of an advertising & service-oriented company. |
