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Biotech / Medical : Neurobiological Tech (NTII)
NTII 0.00010000.0%Mar 7 3:00 PM EST
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To: Craig S. Owens who wrote (580)6/2/1999 1:27:00 AM
From: BRAVEHEART  Read Replies (1) of 1494
 
Hi Craig,

I once expected a Pharma collaboration by the end of June. Why? Because NTI raised just enough finances to carry them through the end of the month. A Pharma deal this month would have carried NTI to the next stage.

NTI will need an additional funding, say two million plus to carry them until next spring. Through clinicals. Analysis of results. Filing with the FDA. etc.

I no longer expect a Pharma deal this month. Why? Supposedly MERZ rejected an offer. This sure threw a wrench into the system. I seriously doubt a deal will close by the end of June. I am thinking a deal is say 25% likely by the end of June. 50% likely by mid summer ( Aug ). & 25% likely into the fall after clinical results are tabulated.

Now NTI may have to find another source to carry them say through the summer. I cannot imagine insiders funding this leg of the journey. There supposedly are a few interested parties willing to provide additional funding. I only hope they are long term holders and not flippers. If they flip stock for a living forget about the upside. It will be 1/2 it's anticipated level. Instead of say $3 I would expect say $2.25 at most with a collaboration announcement say mid summer.

Right now there are any number of scenarios which could play out. A great deal more uncertainty has crept into the equation. The longer it takes to resolve the more the price will drift. It took NTI some time to raise the prior 1.1 million. I can only guess the implications this has for any additional fundraising.

P-II Data for the Neuropathic Pain Trial is expected in Sept. The P-II data for the Aids Dementia trial also is expected in the Fall. Hence outside of a Pharma deal there is not much anticipated between now & then.

I am still optimistic things will play out positively. I am not as certain as to when anymore nor am I as optimistic on the near term price appreciation. Still as a long term speculative investment I like NTI's upside. Certainly after the data is compiled in the Fall the upside will be known once & for all.

Jeffrey

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