Hello all,
I couldn't wait to get home tonight to see what's been posted here about today's news. I'm not sure that I like what I see ... although I'm very happy for Justin and his company for making millions in a AOL acquisition! ;-)
I picked this post to reply to, only because it had a couple of the pieces of information that I wanted to address ... I want to see what others think out there ...
> Just because Spinner uses RNWK doesn't mean that AOL isn't trying
> to position itself against RNWK...
There are some very interesting situations developing in the Internet today. Most of this is simply my analysis and opinion ...
AOL is looking for new markets and directions that they can expand in to. They are going to start to lose dial-up customers as more and more of their current following move to cable modems or DSL links ... this means declining revenue. I saw one report where they supposedly lost 500,000 customers over three months in the UK as dial-up access went to free ISPs with competing ISPs being advertiser driven now. Imagine losing 500,000 x $20 / month!!! Just wait until the US migration really kicks in ...
So AOL starts the migration to a more traditional portal player. They pick up ICQ (+ end-user application), they buy Netscape (+ end user application) and now purchase Nullsoft (+ end user application). To me they are slowly but surely moving into a strong portal play with the integrated applications that will fully support the site.
> I expect the next version of Netscape to have a nice cozy Winamp
> plugin
WinAMP and Netscape already work together ... ;-)
So what does this mean to Real?
I have a couple of thoughts that I want to explore ... what *is* their real (no pun intended) value?
1. I believe that the distribution of multimedia is going to occur through a group of "networks" that form, above the backbone vendors. Looking at Broadcast.com, and newer players, I believe that the Real Broadcast Network ( real.com ) is one of the biggest assets. It is the role of intermediary, the person that brings together consumer with producer, that will be the most lucrative.
2. I also believe that the UI, the end-user application, is of incredible value. It is what the consumer sees, and what they thing the world revolves around. Real obviously is doing ok here, but I have to say that besides the lack of video support I like the WinAMP player better ... and so do the younger generations ... with skins, etc. it is too cool. (And before you flame about video support, I'm sorry to say that they will probably add Microsoft Media support quickly ... they are already using the IE browser object in the WinAMP mini-browser.
3. The other area of value is in the codecs. This is an important, but subtle area. For audio and video to be played over the Internet, they have to be compressed and encoded. Real seems to own the codec (encoder/decoder) technology that they use. The more content on the Internet that is encoded in RealMedia format, the better for Real ... because it can only be decoded by their player. The more content that is encoded in other open standards, the more likely Real can lose the content and demand for their player. Then is becomes feature war.
I have been long on RNWK since I orginally bought (at a price way too cheap to discuss ;-) and am holding for now, but I have to say that this is the second time that I am surprised at Real.
I think that this AOL purchase, specifically of WinAMP and SHOUTcast, puts them into a very powerful position with respect to younger generation listeners ... the AOL crowd.
Flame away ... or rather ... comments? ;-)
Scott C. Lemon |
