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Biotech / Medical : XOMA. Bull or Bear?
XOMA 28.68-2.3%Jan 15 3:59 PM EST
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To: Cacaito who wrote (10306)6/2/1999 1:35:00 AM
From: aknahow  Read Replies (3) of 17367
 
When all the data is analyzed IMO the mortality rate for children with scores of 8-11 will be over 20% and for those with scores of 12-15 mortality will be over 30%.

What do we know about the 62? There is no chance they received Neuprex because they were not enrolled and did not receive the experimental "drug" (placebo/BPI).

I would not add these 62 to the 395 as Murphy does because the 395 includes the treatment arm. (his calculation produces a mortality of 20%). Splitting the groups in half, even while remembering your point that things are not so neat, means I would add the 62 to 198 to get a group of 260 with 79 deaths. This results in a mortality of 30% in the non treated arm against an artificially high 8% in the treatment group where 1/2 the deaths were simply assigned.

Simplistic???? Yes, but I got to 33 or one short of the actual mortality, or two short of the target, using a similar simplistic calculation.

No one should buy XOMA based on this simplistic approach. I have already done that for us and there is no need for you too to lose money!!! This is for entertainment purposes only and being able to say, " I told you so" if by luck I am correct or never referred to again if I am wrong. <g>
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