Jock:
When I did the actuarial thing we used to do a lot of QDRO calculations. Occasionally the lawyers would try their hand at some of the more basic math. And every time we'd fine mistakes - most of them egregious. With your last post, your calculations, once again, do your profession proud.
I'll take your points one by one:
(1) Jock said: 'Specifically, your core assumptions of $1.25 billion and $.6 billion for the base year are flat out wrong.
I've explained this to you a couple of times and still no luck. Then a light bulb went on. Pro forma numbers. LSI would have had to have produced them in their notes to their financial statements. So let me have a gander. Sure enough on page 44 in the 10-K - 1.85b. Read
'em and weep.
YEAR ENDED DECEMBER 31,
------------------------
1998 1997
---------- ----------
(UNAUDITED)
(IN THOUSANDS, EXCEPT
PER-SHARE AMOUNTS)
<S> <C> <C>
Revenue............................................. $1,849,057 $1,909,744
Net income.......................................... $ 74,710 $ 158,673
Basic EPS........................................... $ 0.53 $ 1.15
Diluted EPS......................................... $ 0.53 $ 1.09
</TABLE>
See Jock I am a very lucky guy. I make up all these reasons for why I think the number should have been 1.85b and then woe is me, I find the same such number in LSI's statements. Luck is where opportunity meets preparation dude. Enjoy. I could stop now but why?
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(2) Jock said: 'If indeed, we are working with your base of $1.25 and $.6 for the year of '98, then given an equal weighting to 4Q (which you correctly observe was a strong quarter. i.e. greater than a pro rata share of the $1.25 and $.60)'
In Patrick's post I said: 'Q4 will be very strong'. Note the future tense. I was working out 1999 est. revenues. So how come Jock you are going back to Q4 1998 and saying I said Q4 1998 was a strong quarter? Read.
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(3) Jock said: 'the revenue figures for 1Q would have been 1.025 times (1.25/4 + .6/4)=$474 million (actually greater than that because you acknowledge that 4Q was stronger than average). Why do I use 1.025? Because the press release (and previous financial statements from 4Q '98 show that the increase in revenue for 1Q was 2.5% over 4Q'
I say where the heck are you getting that 2.5% number. Here is the LSI press release:
go2net.newsalert.com
LSI would not dared to have disclosed what you claim. As an exercise I'll leave you to figure out why.
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(4) Jock said: 'Now on one hand, we have Shane Forbes strutting his stuff for this thread telling us that "Therefore the base year 1998 is really 1.25b + 0.6b or 1.85b."'
See (1)
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(5) Jock said: 'According to your calculations, this quarter should have been in excess of (1.25/4 + .6/4)= $462 million. ( I say in excess of, because you state the 4Q was stronger relative to the other 3Qs)'
See (2).
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Be glad you are using an alias here. LSI IR will be disappointed with your lack of knowledge. I have told them and I tell all these bigwig companies is not to assume that they can only share info. with the rich people. Poor people aren't stupid. Besides the Internet is equalizing everything. And the SEC will get their hide if they exhibit 'selective disclosure'.
So LSI IR, we know things have got better, but if you are reading this, do yourself a big favor and provide your Quarterly conference calls on the Internet and store them there so that people have ready access to it all times; do occasional interviews with top mgt. and store them (vcall was good); do highlight articles and store them. More information for everyone means fewer potential headaches for you.
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Nuff said. Boredom big-time. Wasting the precious moments away answering to you - running counter from earlier today: 3 hours.
Here's the Cliffs Notes version - 1 simple multiplication, no separation, no squat:
1.85 * 1.15 <--- The meaning of Life is in here.
PS: LSI changed the accounting charge for IPR&D reducing the amount to
146 mil from 225mil that they reported earlier. LSI said fair value for Symbios P&P was 252, fair value of tangible assets was 72 and current tech was 214. Half of LSI's 75.4 mil (exactly half) was the write down of manufacturing facilities. About 20 of the restructuring expense is still on the books at 12/31/98. Want to make any more comments about the IPR&D effect on Symbios operations? I hope not.
Running count of time wasted replying to your posts: 4 hours. Is pulling teeth any more fun? |
