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Politics : Idea Of The Day
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To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (26758)6/2/1999 7:47:00 AM
From: Logain Ablar  Read Replies (2) of 50167
 
Hi Ike:

ASYT broke out yesterday, but on little volumn. We'll need to see if it and SOX holds today. The whole market looks a little weak <g>. I've trimmed my portfolio and am being real careful (for me).

On market indicators and interest rates.

The P&F indicators are reversing down and it looks like we'll see the 1500 pt haircut you indicated two weeks ago.

Our economy is strong - my main indicators are one:
1. My brother has been working saturdays since January. From Sept. thru December all he did was eat through back orders with no new business. Since the 1st of the year he's been going gangbusters (his book to bill has been over 1.4). He runs an aerospace manufacturing operation (small only $10M in sales) and supplies Boeing, TRW, Pratt, Rolls Royce and others.

2. Housing. We're approaching where we were in late 86 to 87 where there is a skilled labor shortage in construction (and I'm sure all over). House prices are jumping in CT and New England.

So it looks like the FED will raise. The question will be how soon and how much. We can now see one rate hike but then the market will be worring about a second. I don't think one will cool the economy or consumer confidence during the summer, but that is what the FED will start with to see if one is enough.

AG will look back to what occured in 87 (we don't have the excesses in banking that we had back then) and not raise enough to punch the bubble but he will pierce it a little.

Have to go.

Tim
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