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Technology Stocks : Ericsson overlook?
ERIC 9.395+1.1%3:59 PM EST

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To: tero kuittinen who wrote (3293)6/2/1999 10:00:00 AM
From: slacker711  Read Replies (1) of 5390
 

Sprint's unusually strong showing, which is not being repeated during the second quarter; and the Korean sales bubble caused by people rushing to buy handsets at the artificially low prices before the system was changed.
Usually, all operators have a stronger 2Q than 1Q - it's an annual industry pattern.


Unfortunately this is a slightly disingenuous argument. As you say most operators do have a stronger 2Q than 1Q, what you fail to mention is that these CDMA operators had a stronger 1Q'99 than 4Q'98. I think the Korean situation has been explained relatively well. Nobody expected continued sequential growth after the subsidies ended. The Sprint situtation is a little different. Sprint's tremendous growth in the first quarter was at least in part due to the opening of new markets (chicago being one of them). They probably needed new phone models to continue the pattern. I think it likely that sequential growth will resume with the intro of the Thinphone/61xx.

It's true that CDMA sales are now hampered by slow introduction of new handsets - but pretty much all new CDMA handsets have been late to the market during the last two years. This is not a one-time occurence - it looks like a pattern.

Perhaps it is, but it seems as if Qualcomm is breaking that pattern. The Thinphone was originally slated for release by the end of the second quarter and I believe they have hit that target. Also from the reports in Japan the handset manufacturers released their new models in time for the nationwide rollout by DDI/IDO.

I do agree that CDMA phones are still catching up to their GSM counterparts (i think the intro of the Thinphone along with HDR will cut the gap) however i am not sure why you take such glee in the fact that Nokia has had trouble producing CDMA phones. If the reports are true and Nokia is having trouble with the RF end of the 61xx, this does not bode well for either the W-CDMA or CDMA2000 phones Nokia will have to produce in the future.

Slacker
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