I don't know if your the same guy that posted this on the Yahoo board, but this is definitely a trend that I have been seeing in the data access market, specifically DSL. The likely winners are actually incumbents and large ISPs in all markets. I think the wholesale cost of providing aDSL access is about $40 per access line. This is what the incumbents will wholesale to resellers for. The incumbents and large isps are the only companies that can charge this because they are the only ones that can run enough customers over their equipment to bring the average cost down to this level. They can do this because they can penetrate their existing small business customer base through cross-selling and the CLECs that they sell to on a wholesale basis. So the fact the incumbents are wholesaling it at close to the amount that the service is being sold to end users tells me that the small guys won't make ANY money on DSL. This strategy for the incumbents is necessary to build market share. They'll take add'l market share at the price of add'l profit given the long term potential of these high value customers.
There isn't a major ISP (aol, prodigy, mindspring, etc.) or incumbent (Bellsouth, Bell Atlantic, etc.) out there without plans to deploy DSL and the companies that were working on DSL a year ago are actually penalized because the equipment has advanced so much in the last 6 months (DSL and voice on single line, simpler installation processes, etc.)
A ten person (now eleven) company in Rhode Island won't win this battle. No small business will trust their high speed data connection to a penny stock company when they can get better service and a higher price from a larger, more established player. Just think about it: If they had 15 business customers (now there's a stretch), and each one of them called into Log on America to ask a question about an issue with their service, 5 of them would be on hold if every employee (including the CEO) answered a call. Given the CEO and management doesn't have any telecom experience, they'd have to refer all the calls to the one or two people to answer the questions (Call the company TODAY and ask to speak to a technical person or customer service rep about DSL deployment for your small business- HA! that's the acid test.). Now, what happens if they sign up 1000 customers and 20 of them call or if they have a hickup with the equipment and all 1000 of the customers call? What would you do if you were a small business and couldn't get someone to answer the phone when your internet connection and phone line was down. Better yet, what would cause you to sign up for these services with this company in the first place?
Now be aware that these are just my thoughts and you should do your own research on LOAX before making a decision to buy, sell, or hold. If you are long the stock and purchased recently, please post the reasons you bought the stock. If you are short and covered on the large drop, why did you cover? Any comments are appreciated. |
