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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc.

DELL 122.55

+4.4%

Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: michael modeme who wrote (130631)	6/2/1999 10:42:00 PM
From: David E. Taylor	Read Replies (3) of 176387

Michael: I'm working myself on some mathematical modelling to try and get a better handle on the possible range in Dell's future revenues, earnings, etc. instead of the simple range of numbers that I've generated in the past. I've built an Excel spreadsheet using Dell's historical revenues, earnings, market share by market segment and geographical region, ASP's, gross margins, forward estimates of PC sales , etc. I'm using Crystal Ball to build in uncertainties into the inputs and so generate confidence intervals on the estimated outputs. So far I get the kind of wide confidence intervals you apparently get. Are you using a similar approach? What software package gives you the confidence intervals you cite? David T.

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