Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)

QCOM 166.05

+0.6%

Nov 19 3:59 PM EST

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To: DaveMG who wrote (31491)	6/2/1999 11:19:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) of 152472

W-CDMA vs cdmaOne <I'm speculating here but it seems to me that QCOM is taking the position that if there isn't going to be harmonization the royalty rates are going to have to be quite high, which sounds perfectly reasonable to me. So there's probably going to be another protracted fight which means we aren't going to be able to count on 3G related income for quite a while, I'd say at least 3 years other than licensing fees. > The pressure is all on the W-CDMA camp now. NTT is watching IDO start eating their market. NTT cannot wait '...at least 3 years...'. Neither will they want to depend on some ethereal, 'King Isn't Wearing Any Clothes' ASIC from Ericy for W-CDMA. We saw what happened to Motorola's and Nokia's cdmaOne efforts in ASICs. NTT can't afford to wait 3 years for an incompatible W-CDMA with obscure chip rates, concatenations and synchronisation only to find that there won't be one. NTT will want some competitive response to IDO and the cdmaOne bandits and they'd like it now. The only response available is a cdmaOne network with an upgrade path to a compatible W-CDMA [well, they could wait for the MSM5000 but that will upgrade from cdmaOne so why wait even that long]. Therefore, expect some action sooner rather than later. Don't expect Qualcomm to reduce the royalty rate. Ericy caved and that set the benchmark on royalties. Telecom New Zealand is being eaten alive by Vodafone and GSM so they'll have to very soon move to cdmaOne. They can't wait 3 years either. Same for many places. Tero is getting excited about China and GSM growth, but at the current rate, it will take them half a century for all to have a handset in China. He is right that cdmaOne is still just getting ready to roll. But GSM and horseshoes won't be coming back into fashion. GSM is Toast! You should not expect a very protracted 3G fight. Meanwhile, crude oil prices are sagging, which will ameliorate the Dow drop. But at $14 per bbl for Dubai it is still far from the good old days of December when it was $9. Look for more downside Dow! Mqurice Dow 8099 21 June 99 [Wow, it'll have to be steep to get there now].

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