Here's my message #381 about the Algerian situation on the World War III thread:
I think that a WWIII crisis could emerge from the current civil war in Algeria... Here's a recap:
geocities.com
The above link is a two-part document... I think all the 2nd part is in English.
Below is an analysis from reactionary, ultra-conservatist think tank, The Heritage Foundation:
heritage.org
As you can see, we might witness a normalization outcome in Algeria, that is a political settlement that will allow moderate Islamists to share the power in Algeria. This is what happened in Iran, after all. Today, Iranian leader is visiting Italy, after having met with the Pope yesterday. An Islamic Republic in Algeria? This could trigger an exodus in the Algerian bourgeoisie that was, to some extent, involved with today's military regime. They would almost certainly fly over to France and Italy. Obviously, such a scenario means that the U.S. would be supportive of an Islamic regime in Algiers --as far as it is not looking to export any ''Revolution'' (to Morocco, Tunisia,...). As with Iran, where the so-called Islamic revolution was not so successful beyond its native country.
With the growing rivalry between France and the U.S. in Central Africa, this Algerian scenario is further outlining a potential conflict in the early XXIst century: the one between an arabophobic Europe against a radicalized Maghreb (Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria, Lybia). Even Turkey might find itself in the muslim camp: richer, more populous --and more secular-- Turkey will never make it to the European Union while poorer Poland, and the rest of Central Europe will all join the party in the next few years.
At least, the United States were no so prejudiced against Mexico when building up their NAFTA partnership... North Africa as a whole is Europe's Mexico, yet, a sound, cooperative partnership has not been worked out to integrate these Arab countries. The population of Northern Africa has tripled over the last 30 years... Resentment and frustration will grow as those mostly young populaces will have to struggle in front of a prosperous European fortress.... |
