Chaz:
Be careful about what you ask for...you just might get it. As I now see the world, QC is better off without convergence as previously defined. Remember...prior to the ERICY deal, there was concern that the Europeans would attempt to circumvent QC's IPR with W-CDMA. QC said that could not/would not happen and ultimately Ericsson capitulated (and agreed to a royalty bearing license that provides for royalties regardless of the deployment mode). Do you get it? From a royalty standpoint, QC no longer cares whether the Europeans deploy cdma2000 or WCDMA.
Now, from a strategic standpoint, I feel the multi-mode outcome has material long-term benefits to Qualcomm. Think about it this way. Had convergence been achieved, and the world settled on one mode, then everyone's resources would be directed at manufacturing ASICs, infrastructure and handsets compliant with a single standard. All of those resources, chasing a single standard, probably would have led to an accelerated commoditization curve...this would have been good for the carriers, but less attractive for the equipment vendors. Instead, we now get multi-modes...everyone's resources are split chasing a semi-proprietary strategies; Qualcomm gets royalties on everything AND Qualcomm is ideally positioned to protect (and expand) its ASIC franchise (since it will take far longer for everyone to sort out the multiple mode technologies).
All the best,
Gregg |
