-OT-Michael Young, follow up to your comments which I mostly agree. Despite oversold, Nets and most high PE high techs. failing to rally. Just to many people who bought this spring and in no position psychologically or financially to spark a large rally. Fear of missing out has been replaced with hope of getting out [even]. Also, despite the declines recorded so far, prices are not at compelling valuations compared to any kind of traditional methods or even compared to where most were at the extreme bottom of last Oct. Feels particularly dangerous. This is not a short term prediction. Just an opinion about the psychological state regarding high PE tech. and internets and the potential vulnerability. I just don't think it would take a lot more downside to initiate a cascading effect. Many who loaded up on margin in March/April [what was it another $40 B.] are probably hanging in there caught in a hope/concern/sometimes fear cycle. Wouldn't take a lot to break that especially with rates just ready to bump over 6%. Now, the bond market has already done the Feds. work for them as far as raising rates, and their potential action in reality does not mean that much, but it is a game of psychology right now. Maybe this weeks poor action is already discounting a rate hike, and possibly there will be a rally subsequent to the Federal Reserves action/inaction, just don't know, but IMO[with no attempt to call the short term], the consequences of being wrong here seem more significant than usual. - Other opinions? Missing something? Even though OT, it seems like a an important subject with direct bearing on SFEs short to intermediate term potential, as it continues to flow with the most vulnerable group. Is all the bad news built in? Since the market hasn't broken yesterdays lows, maybe the repair/base building has started and confidence will gradually return and allow those with funds to be more aggressive in bidding. Mike
PS. CATP [unless bought out] won't be contributing to SFEs NAV for a long time if todays report is accurate. $.50 '99 est. and $.85 '00. Next years expected improvement is no sure thing the way it's been going over there, and the market will not pay a premium until they see at least one good quarter indicating an end to the problems. mp |
