American Gold (FSAGX) as a short term trading
vehicle:
Yes, I will go along with that Julius, most of
the time I think you can jump on for the ride
a couple times a year. I missed last September,
but who knew where to be last fall, crazy times.
For the last eight months or so, FSAGX has been
in a trading range from 12 1/2 to 14 or $15, it
is back at the bottom of that trading range now--
the question is, is this a goood chance to capture
a nice 25% run again or will gold, and the gold
stocks go lower? I am not greedy, and will not
wait to see, cheap enough here I think.
Will the Fed raise rates? I think so--Greenspan
wants to take the froth out of the markets right,
if they did not raise rates I think you would have
a blowoff rally in the markets, and he doesn't want
that. Of course rates are headed higher, I'd guess
two, maybe three hikes over the next several months.
It does not matter whether or not there is really
inflation going on, if a few numbers look tight,
and the fed raises rates, the inflation becomes real
in folks minds.
And if the inflation bugs are doing their thing, is
gold a good place to be for awhile? It is sort of
the easy choice, the traders choice. I suppose
you could short bonds?? I am not sophisticated
enough to know how to do that sort of thing, no
gold is the best way to play inflation scares and
Fed tinkering I think.
Is FSAGX a better choice that FDPMX--would you
want to weight the North American gold producers?
Although I don't follow gold much, I have seen
several posts on the gold bug threads which suggest
that American producers are not selling themselves
out--and are in a good position to profit when gold
recovers. If somebody can explain how that hedging
works, I'd appreciate it.
Well, after today I'm about 10% gold stocks, so
it is a little too late to be asking these questions
now, I think I've made a good guess--it is fun to
see if anybody agrees with you of course.
So, here it is, my yearly gold trade--bought ~1000 FSAGX
at today's closing price, no load, since the money is already
in select funds of course, target $15--but I should think
some sort of a ratcheting mental stop would be good
in case gold finally runs for real.
Good luck everybody. |
