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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

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Jan 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: Stephen who wrote (15813)	6/3/1999 4:36:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Stephen, it is possible. i am sure the chinese will ponder whether they can extract enough in terms of concessions to outweigh the perceived advantages of a devaluation. my guess is that devaluation will win out; it is by now almost unavoidable. the black market value of the yuan already reflects this. i don't have precise numbers, but last i heard was that it traded approx. 15% below it's official value, a clear sign that the chinese people themselves bet on a devaluation in the near future. china devalues the yuan regularly, and normally it would be no big deal. but ever since last year's crisis, things have of course changed. regards, hb

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