Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: upanddown who wrote (45865)	6/3/1999 4:59:00 PM
From: Rob Shilling	Read Replies (1) of 95453

Right on, there has to be a BIG DRAW in oil inventory right now. 3 mbpd or higher is definitely possible. However, I think you have to add NGL (natural gas liquids) of 2.9 mbpd. Also, demand is supposed to average over 75 mbpd in 1999. Demand may have started lower than 75 (73 or so) in 1999, but 1999 should end in the 75's or higher. So here is my math: Supply: OPEC 26 (with good compliance) Non-OPEC 44 (probably overstated) NGL 2.9 Total: 72.9 Demand: 75.5 (probably understated) Drawdown: 2.6 mbpd ... But I think with the potential of Non-OPEC supply being overstated and demand being understated, we could possibly be closer to a 3 mbpd drawdown. I am firmly convinced that there are no good numbers on world-wide oil inventory. For that reason, the world will only know how much oil is in inventories after we start getting shortages. The second half of 1999 should be interesting.

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