Sal - picked up this estimate over at RB.
Drummer,
And, if you will consider the "best case" scenario of 600 cars per day, then we are talking about $110-120 million/year in revenues.
Take 10% for Operating Earnings: equals $11-12 million. Divide by 160 to get $0.06875 - 0.0750/earnings per share.
Given the kind of revenue growth, which could be 1000% over the next three years, I don't think a multiple of 50 is unreasonable.
That gives you an upside target of $3.75.
If you give a higher multiple, which based on the sequential earnings track we can project, then obviously you can make the case for a higher share price.
I'm not going to try to dazzle with numbers to paint the rosy picture, you can do that for yourself.
However, I do think that my valuation method is rational and reasonable based on the good things we don't know.
In terms of future opportunity value, who knows what that will be worth. And as others have said, it will become a takeover candidate. In that case, we could expect an offer of 4-8 times sales, the upper limit justified by NYRR's monopoly position and unique enterprise value. |
