I have been reading your posts and have been totally confused by your bullishness but your view on the internets is really scaring me. I think it was blatently obvious to all, including those that played the internets that they in no way were worth what they were trading for. I assumed everyone knew they were playingthe greater fool game but now you sound like you really think these are worth their trading values near their peaks.
Why will AOL be worth 170 a share in the future? Here in Idaho, Micron provides ISP service as do a multitude of smaller companies and some small companies owned by large companies. AT&T has moved in and just bought the largest US cable company so now they can provide ISP, Cable modem and satellite service. I won't even mention how convenient it is to have it all come on my normal phone bill with out seperate statements etc, now their already global reach through existing phone service.
Now why should I buy AOL stock which is dropping like a rock, has only a few pennies for earnings and trades at a value that is too high even if they were the only provider for the entire US population when I can still own an ISP provider that has steady revenue, pays a dividend, already has a market share greater than AOL and trades at a reasonable PE ratio?
AOL May be worth 170 since no one really can price the nuts but if it is worth 170 10 years from now, then T will be trading for around $5,000,000 a share. All manias end eventually, and Greenspan addressed this topic indirectly in his last testimony to Congress. Like him or not, one thing I learned in life that was not only proper manners but sound advise was to always listen to your elders. As AG said, he has seen many so called new eras and they all ended the same way despite everyone saying this one is different.
SO now write me back and tell me this one is different. <ggg> Note the pattern in the market over the last few months. The low PE stocks are slowly rising out of the ashes and the high PE stocks no matter what sector they are in are being trimmed to more realistic prices. We may not ever selloff hard ina BK, we could instead just erode one sector at a time quietly and trade sideways until eventually this market is priced for reality again.
Of course a BK is more exciting <ggg> Thought of something else I want to post to all but this post is too long already so I will eagerly await your response.
Good Luck,
Lee |
