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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club
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To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (5551)6/3/1999 9:55:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff  Read Replies (3) of 15132
 
** Where does Brinker Stand?**

I got a private mail today which I might as well respond to here. The poster wanted to know if Brinker would make a bear market call IMO.

Well, I am totally in the dark on this one. And it should come as no surprise since only the model knows for sure. Brinker himself said last weekend that the model had not given him a sell signal at that point and that he refused to speculate on what the model might show in the future. So if Brinker did not know, then this stiff does not know anything for sure. We should do so as well.

It looks as if sentiment is going to negative. Brinker uses a four week moving average of Bulls/Bull + Bears with 70% being the negative reading. We are knocking on the door to a negative sentiment reading. Hell, we may have even crossed the threshold.

I do know that Brinker said that in the short term he expected new highs in the S & P and/or DOW and possibly the NASDAQ. He did not offer the rationale for this projection (he was not asked) and I can only speculate that in major tops in the market there would tend to be a re-testing of the highs. And if and when there is a bear market call or an intermediate sell signal, I would suspect it would occur somewhere near the top. Brinker said in the prior week that his model would tend to give a sell signal in a rising market somewhere at or near the peak so my thinking is at least consistent with that idea. I also would speculate that he is focusing on inflation and inflationary expectations and these well could be the pivotal factors in the model at this point.

One more thing. He stated that raising the fed. funds rate .25% would not be a big thing in and of itself assuming moderate growth and continuing moderate inflation although we get a temporary market reaction.
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