Thomas.......From time to time penny stocks creep onto this thread, and I hope you don't mind my bringing another one up for consideration. I do believe TNRG qualifies as a Classic BTTT Long. I confess to already having both a trading position and a core position (I like the story) and I have been following this one for many months so have a gut feel as well. Those who dismiss BB stocks outright need read no further, but Thomas please do look at the timely.com chart and comment if warranted. Pennies, if held for a long time or if you fall in love with them, can be high risk/reward situations, but as long as they have volume TA should be applicable. TNRG has volume.
TNRG timely.com
I have included 50 MA instead of 40 MA because 50 MA provided support on the previous dip. Although it is hard to see the Stochastics crossover on the timely.com chart, my chart program this evening gave 5-p and 14-p Stochastics buys and a Wilder's MACD buy. It's still early; one might want to wait for Stochastics to cross above 25. Since the 50 MA previously provided support but was broken during the downtrend, the 50 MA might provide some resistance on the way up. However, from current 30 cents to 50 cents where the 50 MA is is a 67% move, and that's only a partial recovery (should a recovery occur). I like the way the last few bars have shown little volatility and are moving away from the lower Bollinger band, usually a precursor to a reversal to the upside.
I offer the following additional TA points I view favorably: a.) Tues. and Wed.'s candlesticks are Doji Stars at 0.26 (Doji Stars often mark reversal points), b.) holding above 200 MA, c.) stock suffered a 75% retracement (severely oversold, IMO) of the gain from the low of 1-1/2 cents when this run started in early January to the high of $1.00 in April where resistance was met, all this with no essential change in the fundamentals (explained below), and d.) superimposed Price Volume Trend (PVT) and On Balance Volume indicators show accumulation over the entire 1999 time frame; there was no significant corresponding decrease in these accumulation/distribution indicators even during the massive 75% retracement. I conclude from the latter observation that the retracement occurred on relatively low volume and was probably almost entirely due to panicky and inexperienced small position holders. Large holders apparently did not step up to sell IMO.
I would be happy to email my chart showing the above TA points to anyone who would like to see it. I will only honor requests via SI Personal Message (PM) or regular email as I don't wish to cause clutter on this thread.
A bit of fundamentals for anyone interested in such:
TNRG is a holding company whose corporate objective is to spin off stock dividends in new companies where the business plan seems to be coming together. The recent severe decline is
the result of several misleading news releases by the company for the first spin-off, an Internet company with strong ties to Chinese Internet connection. I don't think the company's intent was to mislead, it's just a reflection of inexperience in spin-offs and some confusion on the SEC rules. Small holders of the stock panicked and the price came down on generally low volume. IMO THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE FUNDAMENTALS, only a perceived distrust now in management and frustration by short-term holders and daytraders who hoped to capture the stock dividend without holding TNRG the required length of time. One can still get the free spin-off company shares by holding TNRG through an Ex-dividend date which has not yet been established by the SEC. Best estimate is sometime in August. One share in the new company TIPS will be distributed for each four shares of TNRG owned on that date and you keep all TNRG shares.
Charles |
