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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here

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To: Bernard Levy who wrote (4019)	6/3/1999 11:06:00 PM
From: ftth	Read Replies (3) of 12823

Hello Bernard, I can offer a few pieces on Copper Mtn and CO equipment vendors, but I don't think a precise picture can be formulated yet. Also, this is only from reading and not from direct working experience with these products so get the salt shaker handy<g>. The CO equipment vendors/products include: NORTEL ACCESS NODE EXPRESS NEWBRIDGE MAINSTREET XPRESS Alcatel 1000ASAM, 1000RAM CISCO 6XXX UAC COPPER MTN COPPEREDGE DIAMOND LANE SPEEDLINK, SLM-1700 ORCKIT SPEEDPORT PAIRGAIN AVIDIA NETOPIA SDSL ROUTER PARADYNE HOTWIRE 8XXX WESTELL SUPERVISION As for Copper Mountain, as you mentioned many CLEC's are customers of their multi-DSL concentrator, but they haven't addressed the ADSL market yet. Also all products to date are based on Frame Relay only, which is viewed as a limiting factor going forward. The worldwide DSLAM unit growth projections (from In-Stat) are: 32% in '98; 74% in '99; 91% in '00; 29% in '01 Of this, SDSL growth peaks this year; ADSL peaks this year at 89% y/y and is substantially lower going forward; ADSL-lite also peaks this year at 990%, then is projected (y/y) at 729%, 41%, and 28% in '02. Based on these numbers, Copper Mountain needs to work on their ADSL shortcomings to justify such a high PSR (for CO equipment anyway). Perhaps they can overcome this with CPE sales. Then again, financial ratios have meant all of nothing for the past year so who knows. dh

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