Also inflation note. Special on our news here in Idaho about if they should up the minimum wage or not. Apparently Washington and Oregon have already raised their minimum wage almost a buck and Idaho is likely to do the same soon. Apparently the states aren't waiting for the Fed anymore. The XAU had a nice bounce today and most CRB prices rose today also. Tomorrows employment numbers may move the market one way or the other but we should start keeping an eye on the CRB to see what is in the works for later this month when the Fed meets and future meetings.
I keep hearing on the talking head programs that the Fed will raise 1/4 at the end of the month but I don't beleive they will. Summer is usually a low output time period due to vacations and I think the risk of a slowdown from a rate change would not only threaten our economy but also would kill the US being able to absorb Europe's slowdown. If you thought we tried to bail out Asia last year, our historical ties to Europe are even stronger so I think the Fed will go out of their way to import Europe's stuff to try and prop them up.
OJ - I Wasn't trying to start a war or prompt the huge number of posts that it did. I was scared because you are a knowledgable trader and when I hear someone, anyone, say a stock HAS TO GO UP, my ears perk up. While AOL is a leader now, the risk of MCI, Sprint and T or some other provider infringing is real. I actually would rather own AOL than many of the online retailers. There is no incentive for brand loyalty on the web. If I don't have to drive further etc, why won't I switch from AMZN to Buy.com if I can get better prices? I actually play the nets but I also I know I am playing with fire while doing so and exit at the first sign of trouble. My other concern is when any of us get over zeolous in our views. You are not forcing me to buy a stock true, but there are many lurkers out there that are not as experienced traders as the regulars on this thread. They are looking for hot tips and many follow this thread and take what some say here as the Gospel. That is why although I am not a perma bear, I try to keep the downside points in the fore front at all times. I figure the talking heads on CNBC are bullish enough so we need more bearishness on the threads. <ggg> It is easyto forget aboutthem when we are writing to Don, yourself, LG bb Monty Gersh, Haim etc but here are thousands of people that read this thread that are just starting, have only traded the peak bull market period of the last 5 years etc that will be lost if we ever do start trending the other way or have a pullback that lasts more than a month. Heck if we ever traded sideways for six months, I bet half of the option traders on SI would disappear and start trying to sell kidney's <ng>
I actually agree with you that the internet will change the future, is the future and that there will be some big winners. I just don't think that the winners of the future are going to be the retailers,vendors etc that aer trading at PE's of 1000 today. I do think the ISPs and anyone that can sell directly over the web will be the winners. When I mean sell over the web, I mean the actual product. Software, news, quotes, media like games, movies etc. I think they are baiting people right now with internet. Eventually the fees will rise and it will become like pay per view or something. Remember when Cable was $9.95???? What do most people pay now? I know most of my co-workers pay 75-80 a month. The bait and switch game has been around a long time but thanks to the dumbing down of America, they never catch on.
I respect your views but did want to jump in and question why you were so absolutely certain that the nuts had to bounce here at this level right now and waiting for a sign of a bottom wasn't a better idea. When I look at all the index charts, individual stock charts and the coming news events that could move this market one way or the other, I just feel that anyone not already in AOL or CMGI etc at a cost basis of $5 would be better off waiting and buying on the bounce. I know I have lost a few fingers catching falling knives and I am probably not the only one.
Good Luck,
Lee |
