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Technology Stocks : Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE: TSM)

TSM 330.60

+1.5%

Feb 5 3:59 PM EST

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To: kas1 who wrote (517)	6/4/1999 9:08:00 AM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (2) of 684

I have not read Malakiel's work, but this argument still does not hold water for me. Perhaps you can elaborate. This is how I see it: the market is always running on the expectation of the futures and it changes accordingly as that expectation changes. This however does not constitute an efficient market. To be efficient, the market must be well aware of the significant events for the next 3 to 6 months. So unless a sudden war breaks out or a natural desaster like the Kobe earth quake happens, crashes are not justified under the efficient market theory, nor are the bubbles. Take a look at the chart of Nikkei and tell me what happend in January '89 that was not known in the November of '88. Was that event big enough to justify a 10 year bear market? What about last September and October? Did the world really change that much during those two months to justify the trippling in price of many stocks from their October lows to their December highs? I think (and please provide an alternative view) the main thing that changed was the investor sentiment and not the fundamentals. And sentiment alone does not constitute information in my book. ST

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