Elizabeth,
It is refreshing to see sarcasm replaced by rational exposition.
I agree that UP is simply a wait and see proposition at this stage--a speculation on whether a) current management is sufficiently knowledgeable and intelligent enough to make all the right decisions and skillful enough to be able to execute deals, operations and asset management so that UP becomes self-sustaining and even profitable, and b) whether the ball will bounce in the right direction for UP, i.e., whether adequate permits can be secured, whether the wells will turn out to be in the right places, the fracs will optimally open up the structures to permit the gas to escape at rates that will produce positive cash flow and profits, whether in the real world (not just in some analysts' forecasts) gas prices will rise and remain strong, etc. etc.
IMHO,UP is not far enough along yet for us to be able to predict whether it will turn out to be profitable.
I have placed quite a bet that it will, but at this point I agree with you that we can only wait and see.
As I said about this time last year, I think this will be close to a 5-year wait. I pointed out that UP had changed from a pure speculation on hype and theoretical potential to a production company. As a result, there was nothing to make the stock price rise in the near future since the get-rich-quick speculators were no longer attracted by it and investor types would not be interested in it until its earnings potential would be more quantifiable. I also predicted at that time that before the stock would rise we would be able to pick up UP at C$1.50 or even a dollar or less and recommended that those on this thread save their pennies to grab it at those greatly reduced prices.
The potential is great, but there can occur "many a slip twixt cup and lip." |
