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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc.

DELL 132.80

-4.2%

11:30 AM EST

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To: Lee who wrote (131047)	6/4/1999 1:26:00 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (2) of 176387

Lee- The long bond is trading at 5.95 as we speak.....er, type... Wouldn't that suggest a (current/future) inflation rate of....somewhere north of 3% (between 3-4%??) overall... But it appears that overall inflation is ACTUALLY running above last year's 1-2%...but below 3%....so ACTUALLY in the neighborhood of 2-3%....and not 3-4% So, wouldn't that mean that interest rates are ALREADY high enough?? And maybe too high? Concerning airline fares....some prices are going up (obviously) and some down at all times...in aggregate, it looks like inflation has increased from last year...but DOUBLED? (from 1-2% to 3-4%??...that doesn't seem to be the case)...I guess we could go into the numbers in isolation, but wouldn't we find some up, some down....on balance, a few more up than down? Oil...which has led the CPI much higher in recent months, is all likelihood a spike..this should....must be considered in the Fed's thinking... So my argument continues to be that current rates ALREADY reflect the slight/moderate rise in inflation...and that there are now balancing factors on both sides (at this higher % long bond rate), that could mean that inflation will increase or decrease from here..inconclusive....IMO If the next CPI is not decisively strong, the Fed should wait for more data (August) before acting....the long bond has already done the work for the Fed...I really hope Greenspan doesn't feel his manhood challenged by the market here, and raise just to show he is on top of inflation...unnecessary yet..

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